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Greater Vancouver MLS® Resale Market Steady


Blog by Alisa Sakamoto | July 30th, 2012


Greater Vancouver
2
 MLS®
resale Market Steady
MLS®
 resale market conditions are 
forecast to be in balanced territory in 
most areas of the Greater Vancouver 
region in 2012 and 2013. During 
the past year, market conditions 
moderated from sellers’ market 
conditions for many municipalities in 
the first quarter of 2011 to balanced 
market conditions for most in the 
first quarter of 2012. While a few 
municipalities such as the Tri-Cities 
and North Vancouver have remained 
in sellers’ market conditions, others 
such as Burnaby, Vancouver City, 
and West Vancouver have moved to 
balanced market conditions in the 
first quarter of this year. Richmond 
moved from sellers’ market conditions 
in the first quarter of 2011 to buyers’ 
market conditions in first quarter of 
2012.
Expectations are for a much smaller 
increase in the number of MLS®
 sales 
and a steady level of new listings, 
which will contribute to a flatter 
trend for average MLS®
 prices in the 
Greater Vancouver region during the 
remainder of 2012 and 2013. In terms 
of MLS®
 sales, there has been a 22 
per cent decline in the first quarter 
of 2012 compared to a year ago. The 
decrease in MLS®
 sales was recorded 
in all market segments – singledetached homes, row homes, and 
condominium apartments. Changes in 
market share suggests that homebuyer 
activity for single-detached homes 
has shifted from Vancouver West, 
Richmond, and West Vancouver, to 
other areas including Vancouver 
East, North Vancouver, Burnaby, 
and Coquitlam. The geographical 
distribution of condominium 
apartment sales, however, has shown 
little change in the first quarter of 
2012 compared to the same period 
a year ago. As well, little geographical 
change was observed for townhouse 
sales.
In terms of price, there was a 
one per cent decrease in average 
MLS®
 price in first quarter of 2012 
compared to the same period last 
year. Price trends for both singledetached homes and condominium 
apartments have been fairly flat during 
this period. Single-detached homes in 
Greater Vancouver recorded slightly 
stronger growth in average MLS®
prices than median MLS®
 prices, which 
was largely a result of more very highend, luxury home sales (i.e. homes 
that sold for at least $5 million) in the 
first quarter of 2012 compared to the 
same period a year ago. These sales 
took place mainly in Vancouver West 
and West Vancouver. For condominium 
apartments, both average and median 
MLS®
 prices follow a similar path – a 
year-over-year decline of one per cent 
in the first quarter of 2012. Areas such 
as Vancouver West and Richmond 
experienced year-over-year declines 
in average and median MLS®
 prices for 
condominium apartments.
Stable home prices during the 
forecast period are expected to 
encourage some home purchases as 
potential homebuyers could see it 
as an opportunity to either trade up 
from a current residence or enter 
homeownership as a first time home 
buyer. This will keep the number 
of MLS®
 sales on par with last year, 
with a 2.8 per cent dip expected in 
2012 and a 7.8 per cent increase 
projected for 2013. Still, the potential 
for mortgage rate increases in 2013 
may prompt some homebuyer caution 
and keep overall market conditions in 
balanced territory over the forecast 
period in spite of a strong local 
job market and population growth. 
Average MLS®
 prices in the Greater 
Vancouver region are projected to 
decline 1.5 per cent in 2012 and then 
to increase 4.6 per cent in 2013

Greater Vancouver(2) MLS® Resale Market Steady


MLS® resale market conditions are forecast to be in balanced territory in most areas of the Greater Vancouver region in 2012 and 2013. During the past year, market conditions moderated from sellers’ market conditions for many municipalities in the first quarter of 2011 to balanced market conditions for most in the first quarter of 2012. While a few municipalities such as the Tri-Cities and North Vancouver have remained in sellers’ market conditions, others such as Burnaby, Vancouver City, and West Vancouver have moved to balanced market conditions in the first quarter of this year. Richmond moved from sellers’ market conditions in the first quarter of 2011 to buyers’ market conditions in first quarter of 2012.

Expectations are for a much smaller increase in the number of MLS® sales and a steady level of new listings, which will contribute to a flatter trend for average MLS® prices in the Greater Vancouver region during the remainder of 2012 and 2013. In terms of MLS® sales, there has been a 22 per cent decline in the first quarter of 2012 compared to a year ago. The decrease in MLS® sales was recorded in all market segments – singledetached homes, row homes, and condominium apartments. Changes in market share suggests that homebuyer activity for single-detached homes has shifted from Vancouver West, Richmond, and West Vancouver, to other areas including Vancouver East, North Vancouver, Burnaby, and Coquitlam. The geographical distribution of condominium apartment sales, however, has shown little change in the first quarter of 2012 compared to the same period a year ago. As well, little geographical change was observed for townhouse sales.

In terms of price, there was a one per cent decrease in average MLS® price in first quarter of 2012 compared to the same period last year. Price trends for both singledetached homes and condominium apartments have been fairly flat during this period. Single-detached homes in Greater Vancouver recorded slightly stronger growth in average MLS®prices than median MLS® prices, which was largely a result of more very highend, luxury home sales (i.e. homes that sold for at least $5 million) in the first quarter of 2012 compared to the same period a year ago. These sales took place mainly in Vancouver West and West Vancouver. For condominium apartments, both average and median MLS® prices follow a similar path – a year-over-year decline of one per cent in the first quarter of 2012. Areas such as Vancouver West and Richmond experienced year-over-year declines in average and median MLS® prices for condominium apartments.

Stable home prices during the forecast period are expected to encourage some home purchases as potential homebuyers could see it as an opportunity to either trade up from a current residence or enter homeownership as a first time home buyer. This will keep the number of MLS® sales on par with last year, with a 2.8 per cent dip expected in 2012 and a 7.8 per cent increase projected for 2013. Still, the potential for mortgage rate increases in 2013 may prompt some homebuyer caution and keep overall market conditions in balanced territory over the forecast period in spite of a strong local job market and population growth. Average MLS® prices in the Greater Vancouver region are projected to decline 1.5 per cent in 2012 and then to increase 4.6 per cent in 2013

(2) This section deals with the resale market in the Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver area. This area does not include Surrey, Langley, White Rock, or North Delta. Please see the Fraser Valley resale section for commentary on these communities as well as the Abbotsford CMA.

Courtesy of: Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation - Housing Market Outlook - Vancouver and Abbotsford CMAs
Date Released - Spring 2012